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Article-13_2-2019

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THE METHOD OF CONSISTENCY OF EXPERT ESTIMATES OF ERGODICITY OF AUTOMATED WORKSTATIONS DEVELOPED COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS

Vladimir I. Filatov, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, Russia, vfil10@mail.ru
Alexandra O. Borukaeva, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, Russia, alexbmstu.b@yandex.ru
Pavel G. Berdikov, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, Russia, palber96@gmail.com

Abstract
When assessing the ergonomics parameters of the developed automated workplaces for communication systems, it is possible to obtain a sufficiently high probability of divergence of experts’ views. Due to this, there is a need to quantify the degree of experts’ agreement. This will make it possible to interpret the reasons for the divergence of views of experts assessing the quality parameters of the communication system and influencing the correction of these systems in the development stage, more reasonably. The basis for assessing the consistency of expert opinions is concordance. The parameter of concordance can be represented in the form of a visual geometric compactness of the points of the examination results. The evaluation of each expert is represented as a point in a certain space in which there is a concept of distance. If the points characterizing the estimates of all experts are located at a short distance from each other, that means, they form a compact group, then this result can be interpreted as a good consistency of the experts’ opinions. If the points in the space are scattered over long distances, i.e. do not belong to the same area, then the consistency of the experts’ opinions will be low. If the opinions of experts are located in the space so that they form two or more compact groups, this indicates that there are two or more significantly different points of view on the evaluation of the objects of research in the expert group. The choice of methods for evaluating the consistency of the experts’ opinions is made depending on the use of quantitative or qualitative scales of measurement and the choice of measures of degree of consistency. When using quantitative scales of measurement and evaluation of only one object, all expert opinions can be represented as points on the numerical axis. These points can be considered as realizations of a random variable and therefore well-developed mathematical statistics methods are used to estimate the center of grouping and scatter of points.

Keywords: workstation, consistency of expert opinion, concordance, expectation, variance, random variable,
a measure of consistency.

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Information about authors:
Vladimir I. Filatov, candidate of technical Sciences (KTN), associate Professor at the Bauman Moscow State Technical University, faculty of Informatics and control systems, Department of information protection, Moscow, Russia
Alexandra O. Borukaeva, student of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University of faculty «Informatics and control systems», Department» information Protection», employee of the regional training and research center» Security » the Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, Russia
Pavel G. Berdikov, student of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University of faculty «Informatics and control systems», Department» information Protection», Moscow, Russia