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A THEORETICAL MODEL OF DAILY URBAN TRAVEL BASED ON TWO COMPONENTS
Danila A. Ptitsyn, MADI, Moscow, Russia, d.pticyn@madi.ru
Vladimir S. Ershov, MADI, Moscow, Russia, vsershov21@gmail.com
Artem V. Podgorny, MADI, Moscow, Russia, podgornyrobot@gmail.com
Zapir M. Makhmudov, MADI, Moscow, Russia, zapir-mahmudov@mail.ru
Alexey A. Akulov, MADI, Moscow, Russia, Ter34t@mail.ru
Abstract
Since most people currently live in urban areas and two-thirds of the world’s population will live in cities by 2050, understanding urban mobility patterns has become paramount in reducing transport-related greenhouse gas emissions and is critical to effective environmental policies. In this article, we address this issue and propose a theoretical model of daily urban commuting, based on two critical components: the coexistence of cars and public transport and traffic congestion. Combining these components in a hectic-type approach allows us to draw important conclusions about health and transport-related greenhouse gas emissions. We compare our forecasts with empirical data from major cities around the world.
Keywords: road transport, traffic, public transport, critical distance, traffic congestion.
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