RELEVANCE OF THE APPLICATION MATHEMATICAL MODELLING FOR FORECASTING CARGO LOADING TO FAR EAST PORTS
DOI: 10.36724/2072-8735-2020-14-12-51-57
Ekaterina V. Malovetskaya, Irkutsk State Transport University (IrGUPS), Irkutsk, Russia, Malovetskaya_EV@irgups.ru
Alexey P. Kozlovsky, Center for Simulation Modeling, JSC NIIAS, Moscow, Russia, a.kozlovskiy@vniias.ru
Abstract
In the transport industry, seasonal (annual) unevenness of transportation is one of the important production problems. This problem negatively affects the work of railway transport. The high unevenness of transportation leads to a limitation of their total volume, which can be implemented during the year and leads to a decrease in the efficiency of using industry resources. When assessing seasonal unevenness of transportation using traditional methods, significant errors arise. As one of the ways to solve this problem, the authors propose an improved methodological tool for assessing the seasonal unevenness of cargo loading to ports of the Far East. This technique allows you to increase the accuracy of assessing the seasonal unevenness of cargo loading and make a forecast of the arrival of wagons to seaports. All this will contribute to improving the quality of railway planning and analysis and development. A complete set of measures to include the construction of process models of the production unit of the Russian Railways holding and the compilation of a forecast model for production activities.
Keywords: freight handling; freight turnover; transportation irregularity coefficient; train-handling capacity, production and economic efficiency.
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Information about authors:
Ekaterina V. Malovetskaya, Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Irkutsk State Transport University (IrGUPS), Irkutsk, Russia
Alexey P. Kozlovsky, Head of the Technological Design Department, Center for Simulation Modeling, JSC NIIAS, Moscow, Russia